TrendForce Sees 2026 Notebook Slump as AI Server Demand Keeps Memory Costs Elevated

TrendForce says notebook vendors are heading into a weaker second half after stronger early-2026 shipments pulled some demand forward. Rising end-market prices, longer replacement cycles, and softer interest in entry-level and mainstream systems are expected to push global notebook shipments down by 13.6% for the full year. The report ties part of that pressure to continued strength in AI servers, which is drawing semiconductor and memory-related capacity away from consumer electronics. Elevated prices for memory and other components are increasing notebook manufacturing costs, making it harder for brands to raise retail prices without hurting demand. Apple is projected to ship about 23.1 million notebooks in 2026, with MacBook price increases reaching the market in the third quarter. TrendForce also notes that some premium Windows notebooks may gain from price-sensitive switching, but not enough to drive a broad recovery. For RamTrend, the main takeaway is that AI infrastructure demand is still supporting firm memory pricing even as consumer PC demand weakens.