Rising Memory Costs Could Cut 2026 Smartphone Output, TrendForce Says

TrendForce said global smartphone production reached about 284 million units in the first quarter of 2026, down 1.7% from a year earlier, with the full-year total projected at roughly 1.051 billion units, a 16.2% annual decline. The research firm said the first-quarter effect of higher memory pricing was limited because many brands were still consuming lower-cost inventory built earlier. That cushion is fading, and vendors are now adjusting second-quarter plans as memory cost increases squeeze profitability. The report suggests premium brands such as Samsung and Apple are better positioned to absorb the pressure, while makers focused on mid-range and entry-level phones face greater risk of production cuts. For memory markets, the article points to a pricing environment strong enough to hurt downstream device volumes, which is supportive for memory suppliers but raises demand risks if repeated retail price increases slow handset sales further.